Global energy and commodity price reporting agency Argus has launched the world’s first calculated prices for e-SAF (electrolytic sustainable aviation fuel). The modelled production costs will support offtake agreement negotiations and provide new transparency to help the energy industry address environmental requirements.

Governments recognise that biofuel-based SAF alone cannot decarbonise aviation, because renewable feedstocks, mostly used cooking oil, are a finite resource. As a result, the industry will need to use e-SAF, which is produced directly from hydrogen and carbon dioxide molecules.

Mandates for use of e-SAF in aviation take effect from 2028 in the UK and from 2030 in the EU, with significant penalties for non-compliance. Yet the industry is nowhere near ready. Of the 70 proposed e-SAF plants in the UK and EU tracked by Argus, no commercial-scale plant has yet reached a final investment decision (FID). Plants take three to four years to build, so FIDs must be taken within the next year if targets are to be met.

E-SAF as a pioneering technology is more expensive than bio-SAF and conventional jet fuel. The new Argus calculated costs for e-SAF production in November 2025 show it is currently 13 times the cost of conventional jet fuel and 3.5 times the cost of bio-SAF (produced using the HEFA SPK pathway) in northwest Europe.

Argus Media chairman and chief executive Adrian Binks says: 'Long-term e-SAF offtake agreements are essential to the financing of production facilities. But buyers are wary of committing tens of millions of dollars in such agreements, and this has created a disconnect between supply obligations and demand, which in turn has stalled investment. Our new modelled costs will provide important independent transparency upon which participants across the e-SAF value chain can rely to inform their long-term decision making.”

The new weekly indexes compute the production cost of e-SAF in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region of northwest Europe on a €/t and $/t basis, and are published both inclusive and exclusive of capital expenditure.

These new calculated prices expand Argus’ SAF offering, building on well-established market references in northwest Europe, Asia-Pacific and the US for hydrotreated esters and fatty acids synthesised paraffinic kerosene (HEFA-SPK) bio-SAF. The calculation methodology draws on Argus’ pricing and consultancy expertise across biofuels, natural gas and hydrogen.